Category Archives: Clean Tech

Drum Beats Grow Louder for EcoSynthetix Bio-Adhesive Commercialization

EcoSynthetix PlantWe continue to believe Ecosynthetix (ECO.TO or US OTC: ECSNF) is VERY close to an inflection point for the commercial adoption of its DuraBind bio-adhesive for the wood panel market which consumes $Bs in adhesive per year. Their eco-friendly adhesive is intended to replace the industry standard  which contains formaldehyde and has come under increasing critique for its health dangers, starting with regulations in California.

Yet investors are currently paying only a modest premium to ECO’s US $57M in net cash to participate in this long term growth opportunity. ECO is not a client of our investor relations consultancy, but we would love to represent them, and given the compelling nature of the story – this author established a position starting about a year ago (too early it now seems, but happy to be Long Term!)

These recent developments support our view:

1) July 27th the EPA finalized a rule to reduce exposure to formaldehyde vapors from certain wood products EPA Formaldehyde Rule Summary

2) Cannacord Genuity recently launched a Sustainability & Special Situations Watch List that highlighted Ecosynthetix – the report should help to expand awareness of this very compelling special situation. (To its credit, ECO has neglected its IR outreach – other than good quarterly update – in favor of focusing all resources on the one thing that really matters: commercialization, and therein lies the valuation discrepancy relative to its rapid potential revenue ramp).

3) Ecosynthetix reported excellent progress in its commercialization efforts, which involve industrial testing, in its Q2 reporting:
ECO is currently live with 10 customers, representing over 50 manufacturing lines. ECO estimates each line could account for US $500k – $3M in annual revenue. Further, to put this in perspective, there are more than 1,100 wood composite lines in the world. Canaccord estimates ECO’s current production capacity of 235M pounds per year as equating to approximately  C$190M in revenue, or less than 2% of the total global adhesives market.

ECO’s longest trial has been proceeding over a year or more and accounts for 5 million square feet of produced and sold. One of the company’s customers started its process to be formaldehyde free two years ago and looked at 217 chemistries, eventually short-listing three solutions and performed industrial testing on their products and is currently evaluating only EcoSynthetix. ECO stated on its Q2 call that 10M square feet of board have now been produced using its adhesive.

ECO is very active in raising awareness and driving adoption of its bio-based polymer. Its products are being evaluated by 7 of the top-15 global wood-based panel manufacturers, resin technology providers that provide the PMDI resin used in chip boards, furniture manufacturers as well as big box retailers. EcoSynthetix has indicated that it hopes these tests could lead to commercial orders in the near term.

ECO defines commercial success as running continuously on one line for 30 days. It has run continuously for one or two weeks (and produced 10M sq feet of panels for sale), but for various reasons (largely due to the logistics and processes learning curve involved in bringing a new adhesive into the production process) it has not yet hit its stated benchmark for commercial success but importantly there have been no issues that are not reasonably rectified – and the testing has enhanced ECO’s ability to bring new lines on line expediently.

4) Major retailers are also helping to lead the adoption trend, as both Ikea and Walmart have publicly announced plans to embrace No Added Formaldehyde (NAF) production for the wood products they offer.

5) Putting their money where their mouth is, CEO Jeff MacDonald recently bought 34,200 shares at C$1.65 on 8/24/16 and ECO’s chairman Paul Lucas bought 10k shares on Friday, 8/19/16 for C$1.72 View ECO Insider Activity Here

While it’s taken a year longer than I first expected for the adoption to transpire – in retrospect is was naive to think large companies would move so quickly, particularly during a period of very robust demand for their existing products – and no real impediment to selling those containing Formaldehyde other than in California.  Trialling new adhesives takes time and disrupts production, which impacts the top and bottom line, so it’s understandable in a period of strong demand that the conversion process would get pushed out a bit.  

From our dialogues with those focused on the ECO story – November/December are typically the slowest periods of production in the wood panel industry – where inventories are being worked down and the ability to convert lines to a new methodology is much less disruptive. 

To be continued.

 

Compelling Microcap Growth / Value Idea – Taking the Formaldehyde Out of Wood Panels

EcoSynthetix Logo

A smart hedge fund analyst we know has identified a compelling microcap value idea EcoSynthetix Inc. (TSE: ECO or OTC: ECSNF– ~US$ 78M market cap) that is poised for a substantial ramp in sales of its revolutionary new DuraBind™ bioresin adhesive for wood panels – while sitting pretty with 77% of its market cap in cash (US $59.1M).  

This company is well worth spending some time on – as the upside is significant while the downside is protected by cost consciousness and a very strong balance sheet safety net.

We’re Always Smartest When Listening…
This very savvy investor has built a large position in ECO while also playing a role in adding new industry expertise and management talent to the company’s board and leadership. Like most of our best stock ideas – we just listen to smart people who have clearly done the work, kicked the tires and invest along with them. The value we provide is in filtering out those who do the work and those who pretend they know all the moving parts. While there are no guarantees – after tacking this company for nearly a year – we are impressed on all fronts regarding the Company, its technology, its persistence and discipline and its progress.  The nature of microcaps is that it takes FOREVER for things to get done; it comes with the territory. So patience and understanding of big company/small company hierarchies is critical to staying the course when things drag on.  The good news for readers is that we’ve spent the last year waiting and watching – so you don’t have to! ; ) 

The launch of DuraBind bioresin adhesive for wood panels represents an enormous potential catalyst for this renewable chemicals company and its portfolio of commercially proven bio-based products. DuraBind is an eco-friendly adhesive positioned to replace formaldehyde-based resins that dominate the field but are facing increasing regulatory and consumer obstacles.

Most notably, cancer-linked urea formaldehyde (UF) based resins tripped up Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL) when it was found – despite their labeling – that some of their flooring was emitting formaldehyde at levels far exceeding California EPA and its California Air Resources Board (CARB) standards.

Anecdotally, we have heard that much of the flooring and furniture industry faces the same emissions issues, and is rapidly looking to eliminate formaldehyde from their products.  One prominent example is that IKEA is attempting to reduce or eliminate formaldehyde levels in its wood composites over the balance of this decade.  The industry refers to these products as NAF – No Added Formaldyhyde formulations.

DuraBind Commercialization Progress
As companies seek to produce products that meet regulatory and consumer preferences, DuraBind represents the only economic alternative for wood-panel manufacturers. EcoSynthetix has spent the past 24 months advancing dialogs, pilots, and industrial-scale mill trials with most of leading global wood panel manufacturers. Traction in this area is clearly the key to value creation – so we will provide more detail on this progress below. Suffice it to say, it is our understanding the ECO is already in trial stages with manufacturers who own enough mills to support a substantial ramp in its business. enough mills to support hundreds of millions in annual revenues.  The total potential market is measured in the billions and is dominated by UF products from large specialty chemical companies like BASF and Koch Industries.  We believe early commercialization success by ECO will be met by swift M&A or partnership activity by a large incumbent.

Our optimism is only tempered by past experience: it should be noted that EcoSynthetix had previously attempted to commercialize a formaldehyde-free product targeted in the building insulation market but was unsuccessful in these efforts.  However, we believe that the engineered wood substitution opportunity is much more complex – wood mills in the industry have been looking for economic alternatives since the first anti-formaldehyde legislation in the early 1990s, and still no alternative has been mass-adopted.  Thus, we believe that the company has a truly unique value proposition that will not be easily copied.

Recent progress outlined in the Q1 conference call and slides includes ten large manufacturers in various phases of active trials along with the addition of a few new customer prospects during Q1, demonstrating growing awareness and interest in NAF  Q1.  The Composite Panel Association held its annual panel in Arizona this past April and attendance was extremely strong.  Further, interest was very high in the no added formaldehyde segment.

To date, DuraBind has been utilized in the production of over 5 million square feet of manufactured boards that have been approved for customer sale.

In total, EcoSynthetix estimates there are approximately 1,100 wood board production lines around the world, driving adhesives demand in the billions of dollars each year.  Currently approximately 90% of total demand is being supplied with formaldehyde-added adhesives.  EcoSynthetix DuraBin represents the first bio-adhesive that delivers both on performance and cost – to make it a suitable NAF replacement.

Microcap Risk Mitigated by US $59M Cash Position
Backstopping an investment in EcoSynthetix has an impressive balance sheet with no debt and US $59.1M in cash and term deposits (held in US dollars) and a recent market cap of just US $69.8 M. The strength of the cash position can be diminished by investors who fail to assess the $US cash position in the apples to apples context of a US$ denominated market cap, given that the TSE is the only viable market for ECO shares. Trading on the OTC under the symbol ECSNF is sporadic at best, and our belief is that this only represents grey market trades that are executed in Canada but “printed” on the OTC denominated in US$.

Potential Steep Growth Ramp is Masked by Legacy Business
EcoSynthetix also screens poorly on recent financial performance as its legacy business is in bio-coatings for paper and paperboard. That business has been under pressure due to pricing pressure from petroleum-based alternatives that have benefited from the oil price slide, as well as the secular decline of the paper industry, exacerbated by the bankruptcy of key customers in the US in 2015. FY 2015 revenues totaled US $14.6M, down from US $18.8M the prior year,

New Management Team is Talented, Focused and Executing
However, with the appointment of CEO Jeff MacDonald in 2015, management has been successful in its efforts to reduce costs and cash burn by steering focus exclusively to the wood composites market. Q1 2016 operating expenses were 38% below those in the year ago period, and cash burn now stands at ~$1.5MM/quarter.

Further, the steady ramp in focus on eco-friendly bio-friendly alternatives continues to provide optimism to EcoSynthetix’s prospects in this area.  The recent addition of Paul Lucas, former CEO of Glaxosmithkline Canada, and Jeff Nodland, former president of the coatings division of Hexion (a major industry incumbent now owned by Apollo), to the board of directors gives us confidence that the company is experiencing a resurgence.

Overview
EcoSynthetix offers a variety of bio-chemicals proven to help manufacturers reduce their reliance on petroleum-based chemicals and VOCs, while decreasing overall material costs, improving manufacturing performance and reducing their carbon footprint. Its products include

  • EcoSphere®  legacy bio-chemical which is an alternative to petroleum-based latex coatings
    for paper and paperboard
  • EcoMer®       EcoMer can be combined with conventional vinyl monomers, including
    styrene, acrylics, and vinyl acetate to produce polymers suitable for use in
    pressure sensitive adhesives, ink and toner resins and paints.
  • EcoStix®       bio-based pressure-sensitive adhesives for stickers
  • DuraBind™  bioresins for wood panel market 

 

Biostage at a Glance:
                                                            Canada                                      US
Symbol                                               ECO.TO                                   ECSNF

Recent Price                                       $C 1.70                                  US$ 1.30*

52 Week Range                            $C 1.00 – $C 1.85                     $US 0.77 – $US 1.41

Exchange Rate                             $C 1.30 = US $1.00               $US 0.77 = $C1.00

Market Cap                                        $C 101M                               $US 77M*

Cash & Term Deposits                      $C 76.8M**                         $US 59.1M

   Cash per share                                 $C 1.30**                              $US 1.00

Shares Out                                         59.3M                                    59.3M

*Based on 1.3:1.0 conversion rate
**Based on 0.77:1:00 conversion rate

Disclosure: The principal of Catalyst Global, which publishes CG Focus List, has been an investor in EcoSynthetix since July 2015 – with subsequent purchases over the next 6-9 months.  The principal has no intention to sell any of his position over the balance of 2016 and will weigh any further purchases or sales based on the progress of EcoSynthetix in its commercialization.

Flux Sees 300% Growth in FY ’16 Following Nearly 100% Rise in FY ’15

Our client Flux Power just issued the following news announcement to provide some greater visibility on the ramping demand it is generating with large national & regional customers.  While we were too early in brining the stock to investors attention (at around $0.17 per share) the company’s current market cap of around $4 million seems modest given the traction they see within what is estimated to be a $600-$800M market for Class III walkie forklift batteries that is virtually all based on legacy lead acid technology.

Flux Logo with (r)

Flux Power Industrial Lithium Battery Sales Expected to Rise 300% to
$3 Million in FY 2016, Driven by Growing National Customer Demand

FY 2015 Revenue Rose Approximately 100% to $700,000;
Q4 Unit Shipments Rose to Record 81 Units vs. Q3 ’15

VISTA, Calif., Aug. 4, 2015 — Flux Power Holdings, Inc. (FLUX), a developer of advanced lithium battery technologies for industrial applications including electric forklifts, today provided an initial LiFT revenue forecast of $3 million for FY 2016 (ending June 30, 2016) in conjunction with a preliminary projection of its Q4 and full year FY 2015 results. Flux launched its LiFT Pack lithium battery line for Class III pallet jack forklifts or “walkies” in January 2014.

2016 Sales Outlook
Flux has built a nationwide network of battery distributors, forklift dealers, OEMs and national and regional customers who now recognize the performance and cost benefits of Flux’s lithium-ion storage solutions over legacy lead-acid batteries. Based on customer and distributor dialogues, LiFT Pack piloting, and initial purchases, Flux management feels confident it can achieve fiscal 2016 LiFT Pack sales of at least $3 million, representing 300% growth over fiscal 2015. The FY 2016 sales estimate excludes other product sales opportunities in development and is subject to Flux’s ability to secure sufficient working capital to fund inventories, demo units, industry certifications, receivables and expanded sales, customer support and administration expense. Flux is currently considering various options to address its working capital needs.EF3C4402

Ron Dutt, Flux CEO, said, “It’s very exciting to see the realization of our team’s strategy and efforts resonating so strongly within the material handling industry. We have developed very meaningful large account interest that supports the strong sales ramp we anticipate beginning in Q2 fiscal 2016. Based on current dialogues we expect our sales to improve significantly over the next year, reaching a $1.5 million per quarter run rate by the end of fiscal 2016. We are also planning several product design, sourcing and cost management initiatives to improve our product margins.”

Growing National/Regional Customer Base
Demand for Flux LiFT Pack solutions is centered on logistics-intensive industries including beverages, food, groceries, consumer goods and shipping and transportation. To date, 26 large national or regional companies have piloted Flux LiFT Packs for walkies and so far 15 of them have proceeded to make initial LiFT Pack purchases. This demonstrates solid progress from the 16 piloting companies, 10 of which had made initial purchases, as reported in March 2015. Flux’s revenue expectations are based primarily on advanced discussions with several companies that are planning to include Flux LiFT Packs in their monthly/quarterly battery replenishment schedules beginning in Flux’s FY 2016 second quarter.

Latest LiFT Pack Image 01-15Q4 and Full Year 2015 Preview
Flux expects to report record LiFT Pack shipments – a total of 81 LiFT Packs – for Q4 2015. The shipment record was achieved despite several customers that await the completion of additional product certifications, pushing the purchase of 65 additional packs into FY 2016.

Though its Q4 and full year 2015 financial statements are not finalized, Flux anticipates Q4 2015 revenue grew to approximately $205,000 and full year FY 2015 revenue rose to approximately $700,000, nearly doubling over FY 2014 revenue of $358,000. Flux expects its Q4 2015 net loss to range between $700,000 – $900,000 and its FY 2015 net loss to range between $2.5M – $2.7M, a significant improvement over the FY 2014 net loss of $4.3M.

About Flux Power Holdings, Inc. (www.fluxpwr.com)
Flux Power develops and markets advanced lithium-ion energy storage systems (‘batteries’) based on its proprietary battery management system (BMS) and in-house engineering and product design. Flux storage solutions deliver improved performance, extended cycle life and greater return on investment than legacy solutions. Flux sells direct and through a growing base of distribution relationships. Products include advanced battery packs for motive power in the lift equipment, tug and tow and robotics market, portable power for military applications and stationary power for grid storage.

Flux Blog:     Flux Power Currents
Facebook:    FLUXPower
Twitter         Company: @FLUXpwr Investor Relations: @FluxPowerIR
LinkedIn      Flux Power

This release contains projections and other “forward-looking statements” relating to Flux’s business, that are often identified by the use of “believes,” “expects” or similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve a number of estimates, assumptions, risks and other uncertainties that may cause actual results to be materially different from those anticipated, believed, estimated, expected, etc. Such forward-looking statements include the development and success of new products, projected sales, Company’s ability to fund its operations, distribution partnerships and business opportunities and the uncertainties of customer acceptance of current and new products. Actual results could differ from those projected due to numerous factors and uncertainties. Although Company believes that the expectations, opinions, projections, and comments reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, Company can give no assurance that such statements will prove to be correct, and that the Company’s actual results of ‎operations, financial condition and performance will not differ materially from the ‎results of operations, financial condition and performance reflected or implied by these forward-‎looking statements. Undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements and Investors should refer to the risk factors outlined in our Form 10-K, 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC and available at www.sec.gov/edgar. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this news release, and Company assumes no obligation to update these statements or the reasons why actual results could differ from those projected.

Flux, Flux Power and associated logos are trademarks of Flux Power Holdings, Inc. All other third party brands, products, trademarks, or registered marks are the property of and used to identify the products or services of their respective owners.